What's the best way to forecast staffing needs?
Use your POS data from the last 8-12 weeks (sales and transactions by hour/day), then adjust for promotions, events, seasonality, and delivery vs. dine-in mix. You don't need perfection - just a repeatable method.
How to Schedule Employees Effectively for Your Restaurant
Importance of Effective Scheduling
Scheduling can feel like one of those never-ending restaurant tasks - you finish next week's schedule, and two minutes later someone requests time off, a delivery arrives late, or sales suddenly spike. But "good enough" scheduling quietly drains profit and energy. Too many labor hours during slow periods hurts your margins. Too few people during rushes hurts service, sales, and reviews. And inconsistent schedules - too many clopens, uneven weekends, last-minute changes - burn out the team that keeps your doors open.
Effective scheduling is about building a repeatable system that gives you three things at once - (1) the coverage you need to serve guests well, (2) labor costs that stay in control, and (3) a team that feels the schedule is fair and predictable. When those three are aligned, scheduling stops being a weekly emergency and becomes a tool you use to run the business.
Forecast Sales and Traffic
If scheduling feels stressful, it's usually because you're guessing. Forecasting turns scheduling into a math problem you can manage. You don't need a complicated model or perfect predictions - you need a consistent way to estimate demand so you can staff the right people at the right times.
Start with the easiest data you already have - POS sales by day and hour for the last 8-12 weeks. Pull a report that shows hourly sales and transactions (or tickets). Look for patterns - which days are reliably busy, what time the rush starts, and how long it lasts. Many restaurants discover their "rush" is not a single block of time - it's multiple waves, like lunch peak, afternoon lull, dinner ramp, late-night tail.
Next, list the demand drivers that can change the pattern -
- Promotions (discounts, limited-time menu items, delivery app boosts)
- Local events (sports games, school events, concerts)
- Seasonality (holidays, tourist seasons, weather shifts)
- Paydays in your area (can impact weekends and early month traffic)
- Channel mix (dine-in vs. takeout vs. delivery - each needs different labor)
Then build a simple weekly forecast using three steps -
1. Baseline - Average sales for each day of week from recent history.
2. Adjustments - Add or subtract based on known drivers (a promo week, a holiday, a local event).
3. Hourly shape - Map sales into hourly blocks so you know when to staff, not just how much.
Finally, separate demand into two categories - service demand and production demand. Service demand is what guests feel (orders taken, speed, accuracy, tables cleared). Production demand is what your kitchen feels (prep, cooking, expo, packaging). A dinner rush might require more line coverage, while a delivery-heavy lunch might require more assembly and packaging support.
Your forecast doesn't need to be perfect. It just needs to be better than guessing - because every schedule decision gets easier once you're staffing based on real demand.
Labor Hours and Roles
A forecast is only useful if you turn it into a coverage plan. This is where many schedules break down- owners know they'll be busy, but they don't define what "busy" requires by role, skill, and time block. Effective scheduling means you're not just filling shifts - you're building coverage that matches the work.
Start by listing your core roles/stations by daypart. For a QSR, that might be cashier/drive-thru, line/assembly, grill, prep, expo/runner, and shift lead. For full-service, it might be servers by section, host, bartenders, bussers, dish, line cooks by station, prep, and manager coverage. Then define two staffing levels for each role -
1. Minimum coverage - the fewest people needed to operate safely and meet basic service standards
2. Peak coverage - the number needed to handle your rush without falling behind
Next, create shift templates that reflect how work actually happens. Most restaurants need different coverage during -
1. Open/prep - receiving, prep, setup, and early guests
2. Rush - maximum speed and accuracy, fewer distractions
3. Mid/transition - cleanup, restock, breaks, handoff between teams
4. Close - breakdown, deep clean, final prep, count, and locking up
Now use your forecast to place those templates on the clock. A practical approach is to schedule in 30-60 minute blocks around your rush windows. If your lunch rush starts at 11.30, don't schedule everyone at 11.00 "just in case.| Stagger start times so labor ramps up as demand ramps up. Do the same on the back end - stagger exits so you don't keep a full team on the clock when sales drop off.
Skill matters as much as headcount. Two experienced employees can outperform four new hires during a rush. So build skill-based coverage, not just role coverage -
- Put your fastest person on the bottleneck station (often expo, assembly, grill, or bartender)
- Pair new hires with strong teammates during peaks
- Avoid stacking too many trainees on the same shift
Every hour on the schedule should have a purpose. When you match labor hours and roles to the flow of work, you reduce overtime, improve speed, and make shifts feel more controlled for everyone.
Set Scheduling Rules
Once you have a coverage plan, the next step is protecting it. The fastest way for a schedule to fall apart is unclear rules. If employees don't know when availability must be submitted, how time-off works, or whether shift swaps are allowed, you end up making decisions on the fly - and "on the fly" usually leads to overstaffing, overtime, and frustration.
Start with simple deadlines that you follow every week -
1. Availability updates - require changes to be submitted by a specific day (for example, by Monday noon for the schedule that posts later in the week).
2. Time-off requests - set a cutoff (like 10-14 days in advance) unless it's an emergency.
3. Schedule posting - pick a consistent publish day/time (like Thursday by 3 PM for the next week). Consistency reduces last-minute requests and improves attendance.
Next, define rules that protect your labor budget and your team -
1. Overtime guardrails - decide what triggers approval (example- any shift that would push someone over 40 hours needs manager approval before it's scheduled).
2. Break and meal compliance - bake breaks into shift lengths and station coverage so managers aren't scrambling mid-rush.
3. Clopen and rest rules - avoid scheduling someone to close and open the next day unless it's absolutely necessary. Even if it "works," it increases mistakes and call-outs long term.
4. Minor labor limits (if applicable) - set clear boundaries on start/end times and allowable hours during school weeks.
Then lock in shift swap and call-out procedures -
- Shift swaps should require manager approval, and the replacement must be trained for the role.
- Call-outs should have a clear notification method and timeline (who to contact, how early, and what counts as acceptable).
- For coverage, define a "first response" plan. Who gets contacted, in what order, and how long you wait before adjusting operations (like reducing seating, limiting menu items, or pausing online orders).
Finally, make the rules visible. Put them in writing and review them during onboarding and pre-shift meetings. The point isn't to be strict - it's to reduce uncertainty. Clear rules create fewer surprises, fewer last-minute changes, and a schedule that stays stable week after week.
Build a Fair Schedule
A schedule can be mathematically "efficient" and still fail if the team hates it. When employees don't trust the schedule, you'll see more call-outs, more lateness, more swap requests, and higher turnover. The goal is to create a schedule that supports the business and feels fair enough that people want to protect it.
Start with predictability. Most employees can handle busy shifts - but they struggle with uncertainty. Try to keep a consistent rhythm week to week -
- Similar start times when possible
- Consistent days off (or at least a predictable pattern)
- A stable number of hours for your core performers
- Predictability reduces stress, and stressed employees make more mistakes and quit faster.
Next, balance the "hard shifts." If the same people always close, always work weekends, or always get slammed dayparts, resentment builds. A simple rule helps- rotate closes and weekends when you can, and be transparent when you can't. If someone is your strongest closer, you might still schedule them there often - but offset it with better shift choices elsewhere (like fewer clopens, or a consistent two-day break).
Match people to their strengths, especially during peaks. You're not just staffing roles - you're staffing performance -
- Put your fastest, calmest employee on the bottleneck station
- Schedule your strongest leader when you expect the biggest rush
- Avoid stacking multiple trainees at the same time on the same shift
A rush shift with the right team feels controlled; a rush shift with the wrong mix feels like chaos.
Cross-training is your secret weapon for attendance and coverage. When only one person can run a key station, every absence becomes a crisis. Build a simple cross-training plan -
- Identify your "critical stations" (expo, grill, bar, cashier, dish)
- Train at least two backups for each
- Schedule one cross-training shift per week when it's slower
Lastly, protect the team's energy. Too many long shifts back-to-back or too many late nights leads to burnout. You don't need to be perfect - just intentional. When employees feel the schedule is fair, predictable, and manageable, they show up more reliably, perform better, and stay longer.
Communicate the Schedule Like a Pro
Even a great schedule fails if people don't see it, understand it, or trust it won't change overnight. Communication is what turns a schedule into a commitment instead of a suggestion. The smoother your communication, the fewer "I didn't know" texts you'll get - and the fewer last-minute coverage emergencies you'll have to solve.
First, pick a consistent publish day and time and stick to it. When the team knows exactly when schedules come out, they plan their lives around it. A schedule that posts late (or changes constantly) trains employees to treat it as flexible - and that's when attendance problems grow.
Second, make the schedule easy to access. If employees have to hunt for it, they won't check it. Use one primary place where the schedule lives (a scheduling app, a shared system, or a printed schedule in a consistent location). Whatever method you use, keep it consistent and avoid mixing channels ("It's on the wall but I also texted an update and maybe it's in an email"). One source of truth reduces confusion.
Third, confirm that people actually received it. You don't need to chase everyone, but you do need a process. A simple rule works well- employees are responsible for checking the schedule within 24 hours of posting, and managers follow up only with anyone who hasn't acknowledged it. This creates accountability without creating drama.
Now, handle changes the right way. Changes should be the exception, not the norm. Create clear rules -
- Shift swaps must be approved (and the replacement must be trained for the role)
- Changes must be documented in the same system where the schedule lives
- Last-minute changes require a direct confirmation (not just "I posted it")
Finally, do a quick weekly "schedule pre-brief." It can be two minutes in pre-shift - call out big events, expected rushes, staffing adjustments, and any special assignments. When employees know what to expect, they walk in prepared - and prepared teams perform better.
Scheduling is half planning and half communication. When you communicate the schedule clearly and consistently, you reduce chaos, protect coverage, and earn trust from your team.
Weekly Scheduling KPIs
If you don't measure scheduling results, you'll keep repeating the same problems - overstaffing on slow days, understaffing during rushes, and constant last-minute fixes. The good news is you don't need a complicated dashboard. A small set of weekly KPIs can tell you whether your schedule is improving or slipping.
Start with labor cost vs. sales. Most owners track labor percentage, but it's only useful when you compare it to your plan and look at why it moved. A high labor % can mean you were overstaffed, but it can also mean sales came in lower than expected. That's why you should also track labor dollars vs. forecast (did you spend more labor than you planned for the week?).
Next, track a productivity metric like Sales Per Labor Hour (SPLH) or Labor Hours Per Transaction. These show whether you're getting more output from each hour on the schedule. They're especially helpful when you compare dayparts - maybe lunch is efficient but dinner staffing is too heavy, or vice versa.
Then track stability and risk indicators -
1. Overtime hours - how many hours went over your threshold and why
2. Call-outs and lateness - how often coverage breaks and which shifts are most affected
3. Schedule changes after posting - a high number usually signals poor forecasting or unclear rules
4. Clopens and long stretches - patterns that predict burnout and turnover
Add one operational "reality check" KPI tied to the guest experience. Depending on your concept, it might be -
- Average ticket time / order speed during peaks
- Line length at rush start
- Online order throttling or paused channels
- Voids/remakes (a staffing issue can increase mistakes)
The key is using these KPIs in a quick weekly loop. Set a 15-minute review time each week and ask -
1. Where did we overstaff or understaff?
2. What shift templates should change next week?
3. Who needs coaching, cross-training, or a different role assignment?
When you track scheduling like you track food cost, it improves faster. You stop guessing, you build better templates, and your schedule becomes more stable week after week.
Use Tools and Automation
Manual scheduling works - until it doesn't. As soon as you're dealing with multiple dayparts, multiple roles, time-off requests, shift swaps, overtime risk, and changing sales patterns, spreadsheets and group texts start to crack. The schedule becomes harder to build, harder to communicate, and easier to break. That's where the right tools can make a real difference - not by "automating leadership," but by removing the busywork and giving you better visibility.
At a minimum, scheduling tools should help you do four things well -
1. Plan with data, not gut feel - You want forecasting and templates that reflect your actual sales patterns by day and hour - so staffing ramps up and down with demand instead of staying flat all day.
2. Build repeatable schedules faster - Templates, role-based scheduling, availability rules, and smart alerts can cut schedule build time significantly while reducing common mistakes (like missing key stations or stacking too many trainees).
3. Prevent compliance and cost issues before they happen - The best systems flag overtime risk, break issues, and schedule patterns that create fatigue (like clopens). Catching problems early is cheaper than fixing them after payroll is processed.
4. Communicate clearly and handle changes cleanly - Mobile access, shift swap workflows, confirmations, and a single "source of truth" reduce confusion and last-minute scrambling.
Quick "Next Week" Scheduling Checklist (Copy/Paste)
- Pull hourly sales and transactions from the last 8-12 weeks
- Mark expected demand drivers (events, promos, holidays, channel mix changes)
- Apply your shift templates and stagger start/end times around rush windows
- Confirm role coverage + skill coverage (not just headcount)
- Check overtime risk, breaks, and any required labor rules
- Publish on time, confirm employee acknowledgement, and limit changes after posting
- Review KPIs weekly and adjust templates (not just individual shifts)
Make Scheduling Easier With Altametrics
If you're ready to spend less time fighting the schedule - and more time running the business - Altametrics can help. Altametrics gives restaurant operators the tools to build smarter schedules, control labor costs, and improve schedule communication across locations and teams.
Instead of guessing, you can use data-driven planning and automation to reduce overtime risk, improve coverage during peak windows, and keep your schedule more stable week after week.
Explore Altametrics by clicking "Request a Demo" below.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How do I schedule when employees have limited availability?
Lock availability deadlines, build a bench through part-time hires and cross-training, and protect your "must-cover" shifts first (rush windows) before filling secondary hours.
How do I manage scheduling across multiple locations?
Standardize role templates, staffing rules, and posting deadlines across all stores, then forecast by location using POS trends. Track the same KPIs weekly (labor %, SPLH, overtime, call-outs). Scheduling software is critical to enforce rules, share coverage, and manage swaps.
What are the most important scheduling KPIs to track weekly?
Start with - labor %, labor dollars vs forecast, Sales Per Labor Hour (SPLH), overtime hours, call-outs/lateness, and schedule changes after posting. Add a service metric like ticket times if you can.
How do I avoid overstaffing during slow hours?
Build shift templates by daypart and stagger start/end times around rush windows. Instead of scheduling everyone at the same time, ramp coverage up and down in 30-60 minute blocks.
