What is a financial projection?
A financial projection is an estimate of a business's future income, expenses, and cash flow based on assumptions. For restaurants, it forecasts sales, COGS, labor, and profit over time, helping owners plan budgets, staffing, pricing, and cash runway.
The 5 Core Financial Projections Every New Restaurant Needs
Importance of Financial Projections
Opening a new restaurant is a rush of decisions - pricing, menu size, hours, staffing, equipment, marketing, vendor orders, and cash needed to survive the first few months. Financial projections help you make those decisions with structure instead of guesswork. They don't predict the future perfectly - but they do force you to translate your concept into numbers you can manage, test, and improve.
The biggest reason projections matter is that restaurants can look "busy" and still lose money. You might be ringing sales, but if food cost is too high, labor is scheduled too heavy, or fixed expenses are underestimated, you'll feel constant pressure on cash. Projections expose those risks early. They show how sales must ramp, what your costs should be at different volume levels, and what happens if opening month is slower than expected.
They also help you answer practical questions that come up every day during planning -
- How much do I need to sell each day to break even?
- What average ticket and number of transactions make my model work?
- What staffing levels can I afford before sales stabilize?
- How much cash runway do I need for payroll, rent, and vendor bills?
Most importantly, projections work as a connected system. Your sales forecast drives everything else. From sales, you estimate COGS (food, beverage, packaging) and labor (hours, wages, taxes), which roll up into a projected P&L (profitability). But profitability isn't the same as cash, so you also need a cash flow forecast to map timing - when money comes in versus when bills hit. Together, these five projections act like a dashboard for your opening plan - they highlight what has to be true for your restaurant to succeed, and they give you a way to course-correct fast once real data starts coming in.
Gather Your Inputs and Assumptions
Before you build any financial projection, you need a clean set of inputs. Most projection mistakes happen because the math is wrong - but because the assumptions were vague, unrealistic, or inconsistent across the model. Think of this step as building your "forecast foundation." The stronger your inputs, the more useful every projection will be.
Start with your restaurant's operating design, because it drives both sales capacity and labor needs. Define your concept (QSR, full service, cafe, bar, ghost kitchen), hours of operation, days open per week, and service style (counter service, table service, hybrid). Then list capacity and throughput drivers- number of seats (if applicable), average table turn time, expected peak periods, and whether you'll rely on dine-in, takeout, delivery, catering, or a mix.
Next, set your pricing and demand assumptions. Choose an expected average ticket (or average order value) and break it into realistic categories if needed (food vs. beverage, alcohol vs. non-alcohol, dine-in vs. delivery). Don't ignore discounts, promotions, comps, and delivery platform fees - those can significantly change what you actually keep. For demand, decide whether you're forecasting transactions per day, guests per hour, or revenue by daypart. Your method can be top-down (capacity-based) or bottom-up (transactions average ticket), but pick one and be consistent.
Now gather your cost assumptions. For COGS, estimate target food and beverage cost percentages based on your menu style and portion expectations, then add a buffer for opening-phase waste and variance. For labor, list roles, expected hourly wages, salaried managers, payroll taxes, benefits, and your minimum staffing needs per shift. Finally, map fixed operating expenses- rent, insurance, utilities, cleaning, pest control, POS/software, music licensing, marketing, accounting, repairs, and permits - plus any loan payments.
Last, build three versions of your assumptions- conservative, expected, and aggressive. You're not being negative - you're stress-testing. A solid projection isn't just "best-case" - it's a planning tool that shows what happens when sales ramp slower, costs run higher, or both. Once these inputs are set, your five core projections will be faster to build - and far more believable.
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Projection 1. Sales Forecast
Your sales forecast is the foundation of every other projection. If revenue assumptions are inflated or unclear, your COGS, labor, P&L, and cash flow will all look better than reality - and you'll make decisions that burn cash fast. A strong sales forecast doesn't need to be complicated, but it does need to be structured, measurable, and tied to how your restaurant actually operates.
Start by choosing your forecast timeline. For a new restaurant, it helps to build weekly projections for the first 812 weeks (because ramp-up changes quickly), then monthly projections for the rest of year one. If you want more precision, you can forecast daily sales for opening month, then roll up into weekly totals.
Next, pick a method to build sales. The two most common are -
1. Bottom-up (transactions x average ticket) - Estimate how many transactions you'll ring per day (or per daypart like breakfast/lunch/dinner), then multiply by your expected average ticket. This works well for QSR, takeout-heavy concepts, or any restaurant tracking orders.
2. Top-down (capacity-based) - Estimate your maximum capacity (seats turns average check) and then apply a realistic utilization rate (for example, 30-60% early on, increasing over time). This works well for full service dining rooms or bars where seating limits volume.
Then, break revenue into the channels that matter - dine-in, takeout, delivery, catering, and bar (if applicable). This is important because channels have different fee structures, ticket sizes, and staffing impacts. For example, delivery may raise sales but reduce margin due to commissions and packaging.
Finally, build in the reality of a new opening- a ramp-up curve. Most restaurants don't hit "steady-state" sales in week one. You may have a spike during opening buzz, followed by a dip, then a gradual climb as operations stabilize and repeat customers grow. Add seasonality if your market has obvious swings (summer tourism, holiday spikes, slow January, etc.).
Your output should be a simple table that shows - sales by week/month, sales by channel, and the key drivers used (transactions, average ticket, seat turns, or utilization). That transparency is what makes the forecast usable - not just a number at the bottom.
Projection 2. COGS Forecast
Once your sales forecast is in place, your next priority is COGS - Cost of Goods Sold. For restaurants, COGS typically includes food, beverage, and packaging/paper supplies tied directly to what you sell. This projection matters because even small misses (like 2-3% higher food cost than expected) can wipe out profit, especially in the first few months when sales are still ramping.
Start by setting up clear COGS categories so you can forecast and manage them separately -
- Food (ingredients, proteins, produce, pantry)
- Beverage (alcohol if applicable, non-alcoholic drinks, coffee/tea)
- Packaging/Paper (to-go containers, bags, cups, napkins, utensils)
- Optional. Condiments or Commissary items if those are meaningful cost buckets for your concept
Now choose how you'll project COGS. The simplest and most common approach for a new restaurant is percentage-based -
COGS dollars = Sales by category x Target COGS %
For example, if you project $50,000 in food sales for a month and your target food cost is 30%, your projected food COGS would be $15,000. Do this for each category (food, beverage, packaging) using realistic targets.
Where do targets come from? Ideally, you use a mix of -
- Recipe costing (your best "true" baseline)
- Vendor pricing ranges (even if not final yet)
- Menu mix expectations (higher protein menus usually cost more)
- A buffer for opening variance (portioning, waste, comps)
That last point is critical. New restaurants almost always experience higher COGS early on due to training, prep mistakes, spoilage, inconsistent portioning, and over-ordering to avoid stockouts. Add a temporary variance buffer (for example, +1% to +3% of sales) for the first 4-8 weeks, then taper it down as operations stabilize.
Also plan for hidden COGS drivers that sneak into real results -
- Waste/spoilage (especially for fresh items)
- Employee meals and comps
- Theft or untracked usage
- Portion creep (a few extra ounces per plate adds up fast)
Your final output should show monthly COGS dollars and COGS %, tied directly back to the sales forecast. The goal isn't perfection - it's control. When you open, you'll compare actual COGS to projected COGS weekly, identify what's off (price changes, waste, portioning), and adjust your purchasing and prep processes before the gap becomes permanent.
Projection 3. Labor Forecast
Labor is usually the largest controllable cost in a restaurant, and it's also the easiest place for projections to go wrong - because labor isn't just a percentage. It's coverage. Even if sales are slow, you still need enough people on the floor and in the kitchen to open the doors, serve guests, and stay compliant. A good labor forecast balances both realities - minimum staffing requirements and labor as a % of sales.
Start by splitting labor into clear groups so you can model each one accurately -
- Hourly FOH (cashiers, servers, bartenders, hosts, runners)
- Hourly BOH (line cooks, prep, dish)
- Management/Salaried (GM, kitchen manager, shift leads)
- Optional. Support labor (cleaning crew, security, delivery drivers)
Next, build a simple staffing model based on your operating plan. For each daypart (breakfast/lunch/dinner/late night), list -
1. Roles needed
2. Number of people per role
3. Hours per shift
4. Days per week
This gives you a weekly schedule in hours - your most important input. Once you have hours, convert them into labor dollars -
Labor dollars = (Scheduled hours x hourly wage) + payroll taxes + benefits
Don't forget payroll burden. Even if you don't offer benefits initially, you'll still have employer-side taxes (and potentially workers' comp and other costs depending on your setup). A common way to include this in projections is to add a payroll burden percentage on top of wages.
Now add the "percentage view" so labor stays aligned with sales -
Labor % = Total labor dollars / Total sales
This is where you create guardrails. For example, you might set a target labor range (like "aim for X-Y% once stable"), but early weeks may be higher because you're training, moving slower, and building rhythm. That's normal - as long as you plan for it.
The key is to build your forecast with two layers -
1. Baseline coverage labor (the minimum you need to function)
2. Scalable labor (extra hours you add when volume increases)
This prevents the classic mistake of projecting labor purely as a percentage of sales and accidentally budgeting too low to operate. Your output should include a weekly staffing-hours summary and a monthly labor forecast showing wages, burden, total labor dollars, and labor %. Once you open, this becomes one of your best weekly control tools - compare actual labor hours and labor dollars to the plan, then adjust schedules based on sales patterns - not gut feel.
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Projection 4. P&L Forecast
Your projected P&L (Profit & Loss statement) is where your sales, COGS, and labor forecasts come together to show whether the restaurant can actually make money. Think of it as your profitability scoreboard. It won't be perfect before you open, but it will quickly reveal if your pricing, menu mix, staffing plan, or overhead costs are out of alignment.
Start by using a clean restaurant-style P&L structure -
1. Sales (Revenue) - Use the totals from your sales forecast, ideally broken out by major categories (food, beverage, delivery/catering) so you can see what's driving performance.
2. COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) - Pull in your COGS forecast (food, beverage, packaging). Subtract COGS from sales to calculate -
Gross Profit = Sales - COGS
Gross Margin % = Gross Profit / Sales
3. Labor - Add your labor forecast (hourly + salaried + payroll burden). Subtract labor from gross profit to calculate -
Prime Cost = COGS + Labor
Prime cost is a core restaurant metric because it shows the "big two" costs that move the most week to week.
4. Operating Expenses (Overhead) - These are costs that keep the business running but aren't directly tied to each item sold. Common categories include -
- Rent / CAM / property costs
- Utilities (gas, electric, water)
- Repairs & maintenance
- Supplies (cleaning, smallwares)
- Marketing and promotions
- Insurance
- POS/software subscriptions
- Accounting/legal
- Licenses, fees, and bank charges
Some of these are mostly fixed (rent), while others flex with sales (credit card fees, some supplies). Separating fixed vs. variable is helpful because it shows how profits change at different sales levels.
5. Operating Profit (or EBITDA estimate) - After subtracting operating expenses, you'll see your projected operating profit. This is the number that tells you whether the model works at your expected sales level - and how sensitive it is if revenue comes in lower.
To make this projection useful, include two extra elements -
- A break-even sales point (the monthly sales level needed to cover prime cost + overhead)
- A scenario view (conservative/expected/aggressive) so you can see how quickly profitability changes with volume
Your final output should be a 12-month projected P&L with key margins (gross margin, prime cost %, labor %, operating profit). Once you open, the projected P&L becomes your baseline for monthly comparisons - so you can spot trends early and adjust pricing, purchasing, and scheduling before small issues become permanent losses.
Projection 5. Cash Flow Forecast
Cash flow is the projection that keeps new restaurants alive. Your P&L can show a profit on paper while your bank account is dropping - because cash moves on a schedule. Payroll hits on specific dates, rent is due whether sales are strong or weak, vendors may require payment faster than you collect cash, and opening-phase purchases can be lumpy. A cash flow forecast makes the timing visible so you don't get surprised.
Start by understanding the gap - profit is not cash. Your P&L measures revenue and expenses in a period, but cash flow tracks when money actually enters and leaves your account. Even a profitable month can create a cash crunch if (1) you had a big inventory order, (2) payroll was heavy due to training, or (3) you had upfront expenses like repairs, equipment, deposits, or permits.
For a new restaurant, build cash flow at two levels -
- Weekly cash flow for the first 8-12 weeks (this is where timing risk is highest)
- Monthly cash flow for the rest of the year
Your cash flow model should include these sections -
1. Beginning Cash Balance - How much cash you start with each week/month (including any loan funds you'll draw).
2. Cash Inflows
- Cash and card sales (consider deposit timing for card payments)
- Catering deposits or event payments
- Any owner injections or loan draws
If delivery is a major channel, remember that platforms may pay on their own schedule, and commissions reduce what you actually receive.
3. Cash Outflows
- Payroll (with your real pay cycle - weekly or biweekly)
- Payroll taxes and benefits timing
- Vendor payments (based on terms. COD, net 7, net 15, net 30)
- Rent/CAM (usually monthly, fixed date)
- Utilities (often lagging)
- Insurance, subscriptions, marketing, cleaning, repairs
- Debt service (loan payments, interest)
- One-time opening costs (final buildout, smallwares, signage, last-minute equipment)
4. Ending Cash Balance - This tells you your runway. Track the lowest point ("cash trough") across the first 60-90 days. That trough is often the real funding requirement - not just your startup budget.
Your output should identify -
- The lowest projected cash balance
- The week/month it occurs
- The funding gap (if ending cash goes negative)
- A short list of levers (reduce labor hours, delay nonessential purchases, renegotiate vendor terms, adjust hours, push higher-margin items)
If you only build one projection in detail before opening, make it cash flow. It's the most practical tool for preventing the most common new-restaurant failure - running out of cash before the business has time to stabilize.
How to Use the 5 Projections Together
The real value of financial projections isn't having five separate spreadsheets - it's using them as one connected decision system. When the projections are tied together, you can quickly see cause and effect - a change in sales volume impacts COGS and labor dollars, which changes your P&L, which changes your cash runway. That connection is what turns projections from "a document you made once" into a tool you can use every week.
Start with a simple tie-out process. Your sales forecast should feed directly into -
- COGS (by sales category x COGS % targets)
- Labor (minimum coverage + scalable hours tied to volume)
Then those three roll up into your P&L, where you confirm your key margins -
- Gross margin (sales - COGS)
- Prime cost (COGS + labor)
- Operating profit after overhead
Finally, your cash flow forecast uses the same costs, but applies timing. This is where many operators get surprised- the P&L might look fine, but the cash flow shows a dip because payroll and vendor invoices hit before sales deposits fully settle, or because you stocked up on inventory ahead of a busy weekend.
Next, stress-test your model so it's useful under real-world conditions. Two quick tests -
1. Sales down 10-15%. Does the restaurant still survive? If not, what levers protect cash (hours, menu pricing, vendor terms, operating hours)?
2. COGS or labor up 2-3 points. Can you absorb it, or do you need pricing/mix changes?
Then put the projections into a cadence you can actually run -
Weekly - compare actual sales, COGS, labor hours, and labor dollars to plan; update next 2-4 weeks
Monthly - update the P&L projection with actual results and reforecast the remaining months
Quarterly - revisit assumptions (pricing, wage rates, rent escalations, seasonality, marketing plan)
Quick Checklist (Use This Before You Call Your Projections "Done")
- Sales forecast includes ramp-up, seasonality, and channel splits
- COGS forecast includes packaging and an early-phase waste/variance buffer
- Labor forecast includes payroll burden and minimum coverage staffing
- P&L separates fixed vs. variable overhead and shows prime cost clearly
- Cash flow is built weekly for early weeks and shows the lowest cash point
- Conservative/expected/aggressive scenarios exist with the same structure
- Assumptions are written down so you can explain and update them quickly
If you run these five projections as a system, you'll make smarter opening decisions, catch problems earlier, and build a restaurant that's designed to stay open - not just open.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What's the best way to estimate the average ticket for projections?
Base it on menu pricing and an expected mix of common orders (entrees, add-ons, drinks, desserts), then reduce slightly for discounts/comps.
What's the difference between variable costs and fixed costs in a restaurant?
Variable costs change with sales (COGS, card fees, some supplies). Fixed costs stay mostly the same (rent, many subscriptions, insurance).
What are the most common mistakes in restaurant financial projections?
Overestimating sales, underestimating labor coverage, ignoring delivery fees/packaging, missing payroll burden, and not forecasting cash timing.
What's the difference between a P&L forecast and a cash flow forecast?
A P&L shows profitability for a period; cash flow shows when money actually comes in and goes out, which determines runway.
